In 2026, global energy disruptions are expected to increase fuel and food costs, intensifying value-seeking behaviour and making consumers much more deliberate.
The Spend Trend Report highlights consumer spending trends in 2026 (Image supplied)
"Consumers are going into 2026 with more tools and a stronger financial behaviour, and as a result, you will see a trade-off,” says Hylton Kallner, CEO of Discovery SA and Discovery Bank.
He was commenting on this at the presentation of the fourth edition of the Visa Discovery Bank Spend Trend 2026 Report this morning, 23 May, in Sandton.
The report highlights trends going into 2026, such as global energy disruptions as well as global trade shifts and tariff pressures. Both will put pressure on the South African consumer.
A resilient SA consumer
However, Hylton says the report shows that South African consumers will continue to manage their spend goals through this volatile period.
“There's no doubt that we are in uncertain times, but as South Africans, we tend to respond in very positive, resilient and innovative ways to these kinds of global trends, and that's what we see coming through, such as increased use of incentives, rewards, more judicious spending and the tools for financial planning and budgeting.”
Treatonomics
An interesting insight from the Report is that over 50% of respondents said they now strongly agree that rewards programmes are much more important today than they were a year ago.
But even as consumers become a lot more deliberate about their everyday spend and managing essentials differently, the trend of Treatonomics is growing.
In the Report, 57% of consumers said that they are still protecting the everyday treats. However, another 42% of consumers surveyed said that while they do treat themselves, they are a lot more deliberate.
The fact is that everyday treats are actually embedded into the consumers' habits, such as morning coffee, and, as a result, treats have become part of the consumers’ discretionary spend.
Event-driven purchasing
This is also where special events come into play, with a major trend being event-led spend, such as sporting events, but also days like Mother’s Day and long weekends.
“Consumers don’t want cheap - they want value, and we will continue to see this behaviour pulling through," says Visa SA country head, Lineshree Moodley, who adds that a major highlight is Black Friday.
“Consumers are very willing to hold off on purchases until these types of events come up. So Black Friday now is not just a one-day event, it's become a month-long event."
Last year, Black Friday drove a 57% increase in sales for the year.
Value for the consumer
“The implication for retailers is that as they need to start to think about how to serve the South African consumer by understanding that consumers still want the everyday treats and are happy to pay for them.
“You need to understand that the consumer values discounts and specials, so retailers are going to have to put together propositions that actually cater for both those motivations,” explains Moodley.
Increased use of AI
Moodley says one of the tools consumers are using is artificial intelligence (AI), and this will only increase going forward.
While consumers currently use it to compare products on price, digital commerce and AI-assisted decision-making will become the default for consumers.
“I think the next step is going to be moving into agentic e-commerce space, where I have an agent that actually goes and fulfils the purchase on my behalf.”
She says we are not that far away from that. “Already, agentic commerce transactions are happening around the globe.”
What is key, she emphasises, is that as consumers change the way in which they spend, they're going to expect that payments are seamless, but still safe and secure.
Hylton adds to this. “In the retail space, the trend is that there is not a single consumer anymore. In 2026, we will see that instead of designing for averages, retailers will design for nuances or preferences.”
Innovation in times of uncertainty
As we go into this year with all the uncertainty, innovation will accelerate.
“As things become tougher, I think people are going to be more bold, with a lot more experimentation, and drive towards the online space,” says Moodley.
Hylton agrees with this, adding that it is in times of uncertainty like these that innovation thrives.
“If you look at 2020, with the Covid pandemic, households and businesses very quickly started adopting innovations such as digital payments and e-commerce - in fact, digital payments probably faster than it would have grown if that didn't happen.”
Spend Trend Report 2026
The Spend Trend 2026 Report is a collaboration between Visa and Discovery Bank to provide an in-depth view of the South African consumer’s spending behaviour.
It looks at how much people spend, what they spend on, how they spend and when they spend over several sectors such as healthy living, sports betting, AI, grocery and online shopping, and travel.
