Can SA speed up its EV transition to combat record-high emissions?

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Speaking at COP29 last month, Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary summed up the need for action saying, “The climate crisis is fast becoming an economy-killer". South Africans are acutely aware that we cannot afford any more economy-killers, so the task ahead is mammoth.

New data released by the Global Carbon Project shows that carbon emissions from fossil fuels are expected to increase by 0.8% globally this year, hitting a record high of 37.2 billion tonnes. Despite global reduction efforts, researchers say there is also no sign that fossil fuel carbon emissions have peaked. With 2030, the first milestone date for carbon reductions now just five years away, efforts will have to be significantly accelerated.

One area where progress has been made globally has been in the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). According to the International Energy Agency, the rising numbers of EVs could result in a saving of six million barrels of oil per day by 2030. Despite this, to meet zero carbon goals, EVs will have to account for 70% of new vehicle sales by 2030.

Uptake is critical

In South Africa, where we are already at risk of not meeting our 2030 carbon reduction targets because of our reliance on coal-fired power, the acceleration of electric vehicle uptake is critical.

The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) data shows that in the first half of 2024, over 7,100 new energy vehicles (NEVs) were sold, compared with 7746 sold for the entirety of 2023.

This growth is positive, but these numbers are minuscule when considering the 12 million self-propelled vehicles currently on South African roads and the fact that only about 750 of the new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are fully electric.

Transport is one of the top three contributors to carbon emissions here, accounting for over 10% of national emissions. Road transport accounts for over 90% of these, so a focus on electric vehicles and the infrastructure required to run them has the potential to deliver significant results.

A hand-in-hand approach needed

Charge estimates that fully migrating the vehicles currently registered on the government’s eNaTIS system into solar-charged EVs could reduce the country’s carbon emissions by 97 million tonnes annually- far above the 18 million tonne reduction target for transport by 2030.

The growth in uptake of NEVs shows that there is an appetite at the consumer level for lower emission options. However, this needs to be supported with policy that recognises the role EVs can play in carbon emission reductions, incentives that stimulate the manufacture and uptake of EVs, and critically, investment in green infrastructure.

Conservative estimates indicate that South Africa’s national grid will not be able to manage the demands imposed on it by the mass charging of EVs.

However, South Africa’s energy availability issues aside, our data shows that grid-tied charging solutions will actually have a greater carbon impact than petrol-powered engines.

The standard petrol-powered car in South Africa produces around 4.4 tonnes of emissions annually compared with an electric vehicle charging on the national grid, which produces 5.8 tonnes because 80% of electricity generated in South Africa is coal-powered.

South Africa’s EV strategy should therefore go hand-in-hand with a mass rollout of off-grid, renewable EV charging stations- to reduce both grid demand and carbon emissions.

South Africa switches on its first solar EV charging station

28 Nov 2024

Investment in green infrastructure by the private sector in a supportive policy environment will reduce emissions while protecting industry, safeguarding trade relationships and creating jobs and growth.

Meeting our net zero goals is non-negotiable. Failing to do so will destroy lives and livelihoods. The flip side, however, is that countries with strong climate action plans can protect their economies and drive growth and job creation at the same time. Investing in the infrastructure to support clean mobility now, will set us apart as one of those countries.