The impact of Donald Trump’s anti-climate measures on our heating planet

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The year 2024 was the first in which the average temperature exceeded the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5°C. Under a status quo scenario, Earth is on track to reach an approximate 2.7°C increase in planetary warming by 2100.

The 2024 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report found that climate-related global health threats are reaching new records, including heat-related deaths, food insecurity and the spread of infectious diseases.

Despite six reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 29 COP conferences and thousands of scientific papers, the world has made only minor headway on climate action.

Main carbon polluters and their victims

The 10 largest oil-producing and consuming countries account for 73% of total oil production and consumption globally.

The US is the largest oil producer and oil consumer, accounting for almost one-quarter of global production and more than 20% of consumption in 2022. Canada is the fourth-largest oil producer and the ninth-largest consumer, and also has the highest per-capita CO2 emission levels of any country.

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The world’s 60 largest banks, meanwhile, earmarked US$6.9tn over the last eight years to enable the fossil fuel industry.

According to an Oxfam International report, the richest 1% of the world’s population, most of whom live in developed countries, are responsible for more than twice as much carbon pollution each year as the poorest 50% of humanity. Low-income countries that make up nearly 60% of the world’s population, on the other hand, account for less than 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

At COP 29 in Azerbaijan last year, developed countries, including Canada, pledged to triple their financial support for poor climate-vulnerable countries to $300bn a year by 2035 to help them mitigate emissions, adapt to climate threats and help pay for loss and damage.

But this is far from the $1.3tn demanded by Global South countries. Their pledges bear little resemblance to global fossil fuel subsidies that totalled an estimated $7tn in 2022.

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Trump’s climate-related actions

Ahead of Trump’s recent inauguration, and under sustained pressure by Republicans, major American and Canadian banks withdrew from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) originally led by Canada’s Mark Carney as the United Nations’ Special Envoy for Climate Action.

The oil and gas industry donated more than $75 million to Trump’s campaign, though donations provided by those with links to fossil fuels were estimated to be five times greater than that.

Trump’s more than 200 executive orders included a so-called National Energy Emergency Declaration, in which he:

• Withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, which he called one-sided, joining only three other petro-states — Iran, Libya and Yemen — that are not signatories to the Agreement.
• Signed an order aimed at “unleashing American energy.”
• Signed a declaration that would allow his administration to fast-track permits for new fossil fuel infrastructure.
• Blocked all new offshore wind power development.
• Revoked former president Joe Biden’s order that half of vehicles sold by 2030 be electric.
• Enabled new oil and gas development on federal lands, including reversing restrictions on petroleum extraction in Alaska and the Arctic Wildlife Reserve.

Elon Musk, among Trump’s closest billionaire allies, has been silent on the president’s 2025 exit from the Paris Climate Accord.

This is noteworthy because after Trump’s first withdrawal from the accord in 2017, Musk announced he was leaving presidential advisory councils, stating: “Climate change is real, leaving Paris is not good for America or the world.”

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What’s ahead

Notwithstanding the Trump fossil fuels embrace, there are some silver linings.

Although the Trump snub of the COP climate conferences is generally seen as a setback, stronger climate action may now be possible without the US at the table. Furthermore, many American states and municipalities will continue to push forward with aggressive emissions reduction measures. And thousands of climate lawsuits against US governments and corporations are underway.

Trump’s actions may also spur the migration of the US renewables industry to Canada. Regardless, renewables will continue to replace fossil fuels worldwide.

A global movement of governments, elected officials, organizations and individuals has endorsed the Canadian-founded Fossil Fuels Non-Proliferation treaty initiative. Modelled on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it sets clear deadlines for the global phaseout of fossil fuels.

At the 2025 World Economic Forum, Fortescue, a global metal mining giant, endorsed the treaty, the first major industrial company to do so.

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In his famous 2015 Lloyd’s of London speech, Carney, now the Liberal leadership frontrunner, called climate change “the tragedy of the horizon.”

He warned that climate change will lead to financial crises and falling living standards unless the world’s biggest economies do more to ensure their companies come clean about their current and future carbon emissions.

Payam Akhavan, an Iranian-born Canadian human rights lawyer, served as legal counsel to the Commission of Small Island States at the recent International Court of Justice climate hearings where these nations presented evidence about the devastating impact of climate change on their citizens.

In an interview with CBC Ideas, Akhavan said: “What’s happening to the small island states today is going to happen to all of us tomorrow.”

Ultimately, the writing is on the wall for fossil fuels. It’s not a matter of if the world moves away from them dramatically, but when.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.