Massive petrol price increase likely in SA amid Middle East tensions

Source: Freepik

Petrol still under‑recovered

Daily figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for 5 March 2026 show a sizeable under‑recovery for petrol, meaning the current regulated price is below the actual cost of imported fuel:

• 95 petrol under‑recovery: about 378c per litre
• 93 petrol under‑recovery: about 357c per litre

These under‑recoveries develop when international product and crude prices rise faster than the local pump price, and they typically feed into the next monthly price adjustment.

The CEF data also shows that international product prices were the largest contributor to the under‑recovery, with the rand‑dollar exchange rate also adding upward pressure on the cost of imported fuel.

Global oil price surge

The global oil market has seen significant gains in recent days. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged above $119 a barrel, marking its highest level since 2022 amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran. This has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions through key oil shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices surge to highest since 2022 at over $119 a barrel on Middle East war

Shadia Nasralla  5 hours

Because South Africa imports most of its crude and refined fuel, higher international oil prices directly influence local petrol costs, especially when the rand remains weak against the US dollar.

Current prices and outlook for April

As of March, 93‑octane petrol retails around R20.19 per litre inland, and 95‑octane petrol around R20.30. Coastal prices are slightly lower due to transport differences.

Given the current under‑recoveries and elevated international oil prices, industry analysts expect the petrol price to rise again in April, with diesel also likely to face upward pressure.