Global food commodity prices rose in February, ending a five-month decline, as higher quotations for wheat, most vegetable oils, and several meat types outweighed declines in cheese and sugar, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 125.3 points in February, up 0.9 percent from January while remaining 1.0% below its level a year earlier.
Cereals and wheat lead the gains
The cereal price index increased 1.1% from January, mainly due to higher world wheat prices following reports of frosts in parts of Europe and the United States, as well as ongoing logistical disruptions within the Russian Federation and the wider Black Sea region.
International coarse grain prices also posted modest gains, while the all rice price index edged up 0.4%, supported by sustained demand for basmati and Japonica varieties.
Vegetable oils and meat prices climb
The vegetable oil price index rose 3.3% in February, reaching its highest level since June 2022.
Palm oil prices increased amid firm global import demand and seasonally lower outputs in Southeast Asia, while soyoil prices rose on expectations of supportive biofuel policies in the United States.
Rapeseed oil prices rebounded on prospects of stronger import demand from Canada. Sunflower oil prices eased moderately, partly due to rising exports from Argentina.
The meat price index rose 0.8% from January. Ovine meat prices hit an all-time high and bovine meat prices increased on strong import demand from China and the United States. Prices for pig and poultry meats rose slightly.
Dairy and sugar prices decline
The dairy price index declined 1.2%, mainly due to lower cheese prices. Skim and whole milk powder prices increased amid strengthening demand from North Africa, the Near East, and Southeast Asia, while world butter prices recorded their first monthly rise since an all-time high in June 2025.
The sugar price index fell 4.1% from January and 27.3% from February 2025 amid expectations of ample global supplies.
Wheat plantings to fall in 2026
FAO’s preliminary wheat forecasts for 2026 point to a global decline of around 3% to 810 million tonnes, though still above the five-year average.
Farmers in the European Union, the Russian Federation, and the United States are expected to reduce winter wheat sowings in response to softer crop prices. Production in India is favorable, supported by record sowings and government incentives, with prospects positive in Pakistan and broadly favorable in China.
The FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief also projects maize production south of the equator to be above average, with expanded planted areas and favorable weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil.
In South Africa, large plantings are expected to produce a second consecutive bumper maize crop, though slightly below 2025 levels due to irregular weather affecting yields in some provinces.
Global cereal production in 2025 was revised upwards to a record 3,029 million tonnes, a 5.6% increase from the previous year.
Cereal utilisation is also forecast at a record 2,943 million tonnes, with expected gains for wheat, coarse grains, and rice. World cereal stocks may rise to 940.5 million tonnes, giving a comfortable global stocks-to-use ratio of 31.9%.
FAO’s forecast for world cereal trade in 2025/26 stands at 501.7 million tonnes, a 3.5% increase from the previous year and the second-highest on record.
Monitoring risks to production
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, published its monthly Market Monitor, highlighting global wheat cropping trends.
It also noted that risks such as escalating conflict in the Near East could push energy and fertiliser prices higher, potentially increasing production and transport costs for farmers worldwide.
