Community and smaller shopping centres shine as new retail frontier emerges - Clur Index

Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International. Image supplied

That’s according to the Clur Shopping Centre Index, part of the broader Clur Collective asset management support platform which helps listed and unlisted property funds to understand asset health and optimise returns at more than 4.1 million sqm of prime retail space and 140 merchandising categories across SA and Namibia.

This coverage will soon be increasing to over 5.4 million square metres.

“With the emerging importance of the move to make the world well, community focused retail, as a new frontier, is a critical consideration for shopping centre strategy. This community spirit is signalling the need for social impact retail” says Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International, which produces the index.

She says the Q2 2024 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at an annualised trading density of R41,343 /sqm, and y/y% growth of 3.6%.

“This represents a further contraction of -0.9% relative to Q1 2024 and -1.5% relative to the 2023 calendar year. This growth also under-performed June 2024’s CPI by -1.5%.

“Highest trading densities were shown by the two size extremes of super-regional centres, at R49,177/ sqm and community and smaller centres at R42,497/ sqm. Highest y/y% growth was shown by super-regional and regional centres, both at 3.9%.

“While community and smaller centres showed the lowest growth rate of the pack at 1.7% in Q2 2024, they were also the only segment to show an expansion in growth relative to the first quarter, of 0.1%. By contrast, super-regional centres showed the greatest contraction of -1.5% relative to the first quarter, with the All Centres index contracting by -0.9% for the same period.”

Clur says the Q2 2024 provincial indices for the Western Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal again saw the Western Cape as the top performer, with a trading density of R45,638/ sqm and y/y% growth of 5.8%, and is the only index to outperform June 2024’s CPI, by 0.7%.

“KwaZulu-Natal showed the next highest trading density of R42,417/ sqm, and is the only index to show negative y/y growth of -2.2%. However, it is the only province to show a growth expansion relative to Q1 2024 of 0.4%. Gauteng had the lowest trading density of the three provinces, at R40,632/ sqm and the second highest y/y growth rate of 4.9%.”

Clur says a split-year comparison of growth rates, considering only Q2 against the remaining nine months of the rolling 12 month period, shows the nine-month trading density is higher across all segments, likely due to the festive season falling within this period.

“However, whilst the y/y% growth is also higher in most instances, community and smaller centres and the KZN province are counter this trend, showing higher growth rates for the three months of Q2 versus the prior nine-month period.

“This counter-trend boost for these segments in the last quarter suggests that even better prospects are emerging there.”

Clur says that there is a return to important basics, with a focus on what really counts and what is needed to make the world well.

“This started as a focus on personal wellness, seen in demand for athleisure, fitness, health and considered beauty categories. This has now evolved into a broader community and global wellness theme.

“Tied to this is a general shift in values characterised by a focus on quality of life and experience, dignity from a human, animal, tech and planet perspective, balance and time being viewed as a currency more valuable than money.

“Social impact retail, as a new frontier of retail in SA, effectively takes retail to where it needs to be, to better service communities and to boost economic opportunities within their localities. In these instances, by bringing retail to the doorsteps of hard-pressed consumers, transport costs are alleviated, increasing available spend for essential groceries and other products – thereby uplifting community living standards and economies.”