Trump's triumphant return: What it means for South Africa's new era of turmoil

Source: Reuters.

The former president returns to Washington, emboldened by his victory in the national popular vote over Vice President Kamala Harris, securing more than 2 million votes. This success was driven by a surge of voter frustration over ongoing inflation, although he ultimately fell just short of a 50% majority.

Trump has pledged to expand executive power, enforce the deportation of millions of immigrants, seek retribution against political adversaries, and reshape the United States' role on the global stage.

Furthermore, Trump plans to sign a series of executive orders "more than 100 just on Day 1" including those on immigration, energy, and tariffs as soon as Monday, following his inauguration. These orders are expected to include efforts to overturn Biden's environmental regulations and withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement, according to sources.

Trump's AGOA challenge

Meanwhile, the incoming US President is expected to take a tough stance on South Africa, which could lose its eligibility to benefit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US trade programme that provides duty-free access to the US market for eligible African countries, the Institute for Security Studies has said

South Africa is the biggest beneficiary of AGOA and several other American programmes, but the country’s close ties to Russia, China and Iran, could change all that. This, particularly given that one of the eligibility criteria for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is that potential beneficiaries "do not engage in activities that undermine United States' national security or foreign policy interests".

Trump is expected to nominate Joe Foltz, staff director for the Republican side of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, to head the National Security Council’s Africa desk.

Foltz collaborated with representative John James in the outgoing Congress, where James introduced legislation calling for the Biden administration to conduct a thorough review of US relations with South Africa.

The review's aims were to examine South Africa’s AGOA privileges. If Foltz intensifies his efforts in this regard, and South Africa is no longer able to have access to these trade benefits, it could negatively affect its economy, particularly in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing that rely on export to the US market.

All eyes will be on South Africa’s new US ambassador Ebrahim Rasool as he navigates this challenge.

Trump's Africa strategy

Meanwhile, Trump's overall policy toward Africa remains unclear.

"President Donald Trump's likely Africa team appears to be unfavourable toward South Africa, though the potential impact on the rest of the continent is less clear," The Institute for Security Studies noted.

There is speculation that Peter Pham, the Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, will be appointed as the top diplomat in charge of overseeing sub-Saharan Africa policy. Pham, a recognised authority on Africa, previously served two terms in the first Trump administration—first as Special Envoy for the Great Lakes, a region in central and eastern Africa known for its political and security challenges, and later for the Sahel, a semi-arid area just south of the Sahara Desert that faces issues such as armed conflict and climate change.

Pham made it clear in his opinion piece that the incoming president will prioritise commerce over aid. This includes continuing Biden’s significant investment in the Lobito Corridor, a rail link designed to ensure that critical minerals from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo flow westward to global markets, rather than east to China.

Pham also suggested that the Trump administration would revive negotiations for a free trade agreement with Kenya, which he criticised Biden’s administration for abandoning. He highlighted that Kenya would become an even more crucial US ally, citing Trump’s belief that "America’s partners should be capable … and bring something to the table". Kenya’s strategic role as a regional economic hub and a key partner in counterterrorism efforts would strengthen its importance.

Relations with other nations, such as Nigeria, remain uncertain. However, given that the first Trump administration’s policies on Africa were mostly favourable, the continent can but remain optimistic. However, if Trump’s second term takes a markedly different direction, it may be wise to prepare for potentially turbulent times ahead.