Trump tariffs, Sarb shift to test SA startups in August

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TymeBank’s group executive for business banking, Miguel da Silva, says entrepreneurs should brace for volatility, with trade tensions, monetary tightening, and falling confidence all converging to create tougher operating conditions.

Trump tariffs hit SA exporters

The US is set to impose 30% tariffs on around R180bn* worth of South African exports from 7 August, despite urgent government efforts to prevent it.

While a support desk and Treasury-backed incentives are reportedly in the works, businesses in affected sectors will likely face disruption.

Policy inconsistency in Washington is making planning harder. In April, the US initially threatened 31% tariffs, only to reduce them to 10%. Lesotho narrowly avoided a 50% tariff shock this week, settling at 15%, but not without damage: layoffs and factory restructuring have already begun.

Meanwhile, China has eliminated tariffs on imports from 53 African countries, positioning itself as the continent’s key trade ally. The shifting global order poses both risk and opportunity for South African exporters and SMEs.

Sarb drops rates, but not for long

At its 31 July meeting, the SARB trimmed the repo rate by 25 basis points but moved to a stricter 3% inflation target (down from a 3–6% range).

Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the lower anchor was aimed at boosting investor confidence and shielding the rand, which has nonetheless weakened.

For SMEs, this means borrowing will remain expensive. The new inflation target effectively ends the current rate-cutting cycle, just as businesses look for relief in a high-cost environment.

StatsSA’s next inflation update, due 20 August, will offer SMEs some direction in planning around input costs.

Confidence remains fragile

Recent PMI figures offer a mixed picture. The S&P Global South Africa PMI improved to 50.8 in May, the highest in four years, but the broader confidence outlook remains shaky.

The Bureau for Economic Research’s upcoming Q3 survey is expected to show continued weak sentiment. Confidence dropped to 40 in Q2, below the long-term average of 43, with retail and construction sectors particularly cautious.

Global summit highlights SME concerns

The Global SME Ministerial Meeting, held in Boksburg on 24 July, saw representatives from over 100 countries discuss ways to unlock SME growth.

Deputy President Paul Mashatile reiterated the importance of SMEs and intra-African trade but offered no new commitments beyond the long-delayed R100bn Transformation Fund, still under review by the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition.