TymeBank’s latest SME outlook highlights developments affecting South African small and medium enterprises, including the expiration of Agoa, FATF grey list progress, and emerging technology opportunities.
Agoa expiry spurs trade diversification
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) formally expired on 30 September 2025, creating uncertainty for South African exporters to the United States. Renewed US tariffs and unclear trade frameworks have accelerated the need for SMEs to explore alternative markets.
South Africa has signed Memoranda of Intent with Brazil and Japan to expand agricultural trade, share technical expertise, and strengthen smallholder farmer support. Trade with Brazil reached R9.7bn in 2024, up 80.5% from 2020, with exports nearly doubling over the same period.
FATF delisting expected to ease SME financing
South Africa is on track to exit the FATF grey list at the plenary meeting on 24 October, having completed all 22 action items. The delisting is expected to improve SMEs’ access to trade finance, reduce compliance costs, and normalise correspondent banking relationships.
Technology ecosystem supports SME growth
The AI Expo Africa 2025, from 29–31 October at the Sandton Convention Centre, will host over 3,000 delegates and 110 vendors. Startups and SMEs can engage with technology trends, access investment opportunities, and network with over 50,000 technology practitioners.
The expo includes dedicated pavilions for startups addressing UN Sustainable Development Goals and showcasing South African AI innovations.
Economic data guides SME decisions
Key StatsSA releases in October, including Consumer Price Index (CPI), manufacturing production, and retail sales data, will guide SMEs in pricing, investment, and expansion planning.
The current repo rate of 7% and inflation at 3.3% provide a supportive backdrop for strategic business decisions.
Outlook for export-oriented SMEs
While Agoa’s expiry and US tariffs create short-term pressures on approximately 30,000 jobs, FATF delisting, Brics investment commitments, and G20 agricultural partnerships create openings for SMEs prepared to pivot toward emerging markets, leverage improved financing, and adopt innovative technologies.
