Stocks slip, bitcoin nears $90,000 as 'Trump trade' whipsaws markets

Source: Reuters.

Investors have been funnelling cash into assets they think will get a boost from Trump's second four-year term in office, in which he has vowed to raise tariffs on imports from key trading partners, as well as bring in tax cuts and looser regulations.

Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, was trading just shy of a record $90,000, having gained 30% in the week since the election, while the S&P 500 has vaulted to yet more all-time peaks, as have small cap stocks.

On the flip side, the euro and Chinese yuan have come under intense fire, as investors assess the risk of a steep rise in tariffs, as well as the risk of the Chinese economy continuing to struggle even with Beijing's raft of multi-trillion dollar stimulus measures.

Given how tight the race for the White House had appeared, based on opinion polls ahead of the election, a lot of investors are unwinding some of their bets on either an outright win by the Democrats or a divided government, according to Samy Chaar, an economist at Lombard Odier in Switzerland.

There is also uncertainty over how hard a line Trump will take towards any number of issues, from trade with China to Russia's war in Ukraine, meaning investors must position accordingly.

"As we know more about the nomination process, we will know more if we're going to have to erase the 'more moderate' path or if we can eventually dampen the (bets on) a 'less compromising' path," he said.

"For now, we're in that situation. We're in a situation of a Republican sweep, but within that, there are still some uncertainties on the kind of path he's going to follow."

King dollar

Either way, the dollar is expected to benefit from some of the policies that will likely keep US interest rates relatively higher for longer. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, was at 105.82, just shy of Monday's four-month high.

The MSCI All-World share index was down 0.4%, under pressure from a near-1% drop in Europe's STOXX 600 and from weakness in US stock futures, which were down around 0.1%.

Asian markets fell on the back of steep declines in semiconductor shares, following a report that the US ordered Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co to halt shipments of advanced chips to Chinese customers.

Even with Trump not due to take office for months, China-exposed parts of the market looked fragile.

Analysts also pointed to reports of Trump tapping Senator Marco Rubio to be his secretary of state, arguably one of the most hawkish options.

"The market is now worrying that there will be more rapid negative China policy emerging from the Trump administration with his new cabinet picks," said Steven Leung, executive director of institutional sales at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. "Their hawkishness could be more than expected."

Data provider DDHQ projected on Monday that Trump's Republican Party had won a majority in the US House of Representatives, signalling a majority for Republicans in both chambers of Congress.

Trump's victory and the election of pro-crypto candidates to Congress have supercharged a bitcoin rally to record highs close to $90,000, with $100,000 seeming possible. It was last at $86,758.

"It’s been supported by the fact that Trump and the new Congress appear more friendly to crypto," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

On the macro side, there is US consumer price inflation data on Wednesday and a parade of Federal Reserve speakers also due to speak this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of the Fed cutting rates in December by 25 basis points.

In commodities, oil struggled to gain a foothold, having dropped in recent days, as traders weigh up the impact of China's stimulus plan against oversupply concerns.

Brent crude futures were last up 0.7% at $72.35 a barrel, while US futures were at $68.52, also up 0.7%. [O/R]

Spot gold fell 0.6% to around $2,605 an ounce, close to its lowest in a month. [GOL/]