A new Stellenbosch study looked at the correlation between alcohol consumption and residential fires in Cape Town. The findings are jarring. Compared to international data from cities in the US, UK, and Japan, which showed no meaningful change in residential fire trends during the same period, the Mother City experienced a sharp and immediate drop during its first alcohol ban.
Image credit: Ross Sneddon on Unsplash
The study, published in the International Journal of Fire Science and Engineering, compared fire incident data from 2020 with a five-year average (2015–2019).
The researchers, Dr Natalia Flores Quiroz and Professor Richard Walls of SU’s Fire Engineering team, focused on formal and informal residential fires in Cape Town, and compared results to trends in cities around the world.
This site was chosen due to the high quality and availability of the City of Cape Town’s long-term fire incident data.
The city’s extreme socioeconomic disparities also made it an appropriate setting to examine differences between formal and informal settlements.
Residential fires and alcohol use during Covid
South Africa was one of the only countries in the world to impose a nationwide ban on alcohol sales during the pandemic.
Three alcohol bans were imposed during lockdown. While the primary objective was to reduce trauma cases in hospitals, the unintended consequence of this policy may have been a notable reduction in fire incidents, among various other aspects.
During the first alcohol ban in April 2020, the number of residential fires in Cape Town dropped by 32% compared to the previous five-year average.
Informal settlements saw a 28% drop, while formal areas experienced a 37% decrease.
The bans appeared to have had the greatest impact during their initial implementation.
While alcohol consumption is not a direct cause of fires, it can create “dangerous situations that could lead to an increase in fire risk”, note the authors.
It impairs judgement, increases risky behaviour, and reduces reaction time in emergencies.
Residents and firefighters have cited irresponsible drinking as one of the top fire risks in informal settlements.
Strong correlation
Flores-Quiroz notes: “We are not encouraging the banning of alcohol again.
“However, this data does give us one of the first quantitative correlations between alcohol consumption and fire incidents on a large scale anywhere in the world.”
The study further highlights that informal settlements were more affected by the alcohol bans than formal ones.
This may be due to a host of factors, including the inability of residents in informal areas to stockpile alcohol during restrictions, unlike individuals in formal housing who had greater access and budgetary means.
“Although we cannot definitively say that alcohol was the sole cause of fewer fires, the correlation is strong, especially given that no similar trends were observed in other global cities under lockdown without alcohol bans,” note the authors.
The findings were compared with international data from New York, London, Tokyo, and San Francisco, which imposed stay-at-home measures but did not restrict alcohol sales.
These cities showed no meaningful change in residential fire trends during the same period. In contrast, Cape Town experienced a sharp and immediate drop during its first alcohol ban.
Formal v informal settlements
One of the most insightful aspects of the research was the distinction between formal and informal settlements.
While both saw fewer fires during the initial ban, only informal areas consistently experienced reductions during subsequent bans.
For example, in July and August 2020 (during the second ban), informal fire incidents were down 10% and 20% respectively, compared to average figures.
In formal settlements, no significant reduction occurred after April.
This pattern suggests that informal settlements are particularly vulnerable to alcohol-related fire risks and that interventions targeting alcohol consumption could have significant safety benefits in these areas.
Pressing public safety issue
The authors acknowledge several limitations, as conclusively linking alcohol and fire incidents is particularly challenging.
This includes the inability to test fire victims for alcohol use (although fatalities are tested) and the challenge of isolating alcohol bans from other pandemic-related measures.
Nonetheless, they argue the data provides rare and valuable insight into a pressing public safety issue.
The authors note, for example, that the implementation of the alcohol ban did not mean that there was no alcohol consumption altogether.
It meant that during the ban, the sale of alcohol was prohibited in restaurants, supermarkets, and liquor shops.
Intersection of alcohol consumption and urban risk
Furthermore, alcohol may have been stockpiled just before the ban or sold illegally.
Given the uniqueness of the alcohol bans, replicating such a study is unlikely.
“However, despite its limitations, the work provides novel and difficult-to-capture information,” the authors conclude.
It suggests that alcohol consumption, or at least alcohol availability, increases the probability of a fire event in residential occupancies for all three categories.
The study contributes not only to fire safety research but also to broader discussions around public health, policy effectiveness, and the intersection of alcohol consumption with urban risk.
“Firefighters, social workers, and communities have often highlighted the link between alcohol consumption and home losses to fire.
“We now have more insight into how large that linkage may be,” says Flores-Quiroz.
