How to prepare your e-commerce business for peak retail season

“Most brands make the critical error of treating peak season as isolated events rather than a connected journey,” says Caleb Shepard, media director at TDMC. “For example, data shows that 41% of festive shoppers continue purchasing into January, yet the majority of businesses switch off their marketing efforts precisely when CPMs drop by 15% and competition decreases.” As a certified Google Premier Partner, Meta Business Partner, and Shopify Plus Partner, TDMC specialises in delivering comprehensive digital marketing strategies, helping brands navigate complex multi-channel landscapes to achieve sustainable growth.

Economic realities shaping consumer behaviour

The 2025 peak season unfolds against a complex economic backdrop that savvy retailers must navigate carefully. With FMCG inflation at 8% versus the official CPI of 3.2%, South African consumers are feeling genuine price pressure, fundamentally altering their shopping behaviour.

“We’re seeing an interesting scenario,” explains Shepard. “While 83% of FMCG categories are experiencing volume decline as consumers buy less, 60% of shoppers expect to be better off financially next year. This optimism, particularly among Gen Z and under-30s at 70%, creates opportunities for brands that understand how to message value effectively.”

Key consumer behaviour shifts include 63% actively seeking the best prices, 55% trying new brands for affordability, and 94% having shopped online – up from 82% in 2024. Perhaps most significantly for marketers, 40% now shop equally across online and in-store channels.

An extended peak season strategy

TDMC’s comprehensive analysis reveals that successful peak season campaigns should span multiple high-impact periods rather than focusing on single events.

The Q4 high-impact period begins with the Planning Mindset phase throughout October, when consumers start actively considering their purchases for the months ahead. This flows into Halloween opportunities for costume and accessory retailers, followed by the traditional Black Friday focus on 28 November 2025, and Cyber Monday's digital-first promotions on 1 December. The Christmas period from 1- 25 December provides an extended gifting window that many retailers fail to fully capitalise on.

The Q5 Opportunity Window launches immediately post-festive from December 26 onwards, delivering 15% lower CPMs and 4% lower CPAs compared to peak periods. This window captures New Year’s resolution shopping peaks and strategic gift card redemption campaigns when competition has significantly decreased.

The Q1 2026 Back-to-School Extension from January through February represents a unique South African competitive advantage. This period maintains the low CPM benefits of Q5 while tapping into essential education spending drivers, creating a natural progression from Q5 clearance activities into education preparation purchases.

“The back-to-school period creates a unique extension opportunity for South Africa that international best practices often miss,” notes Melissa Humphry, New Business Development Director at TDMC. “South African retailers can seamlessly transition from Q5 clearance sales into essential education spending, maintaining momentum well into February 2026.”

Creating a strategic framework for success

1. Economic-informed messaging

Given the price-sensitive landscape, TDMC recommends leading with value communication, highlighting savings percentages and price comparisons. However, Shepard emphasises balancing price messaging with quality signals, as consumers still pay 14% more for brands they perceive as meaningfully different.

“It’s not just about being cheapest – it’s about communicating value effectively. With 32% using lay-by and payment plans, and 50% actively using loyalty programmes, brands need to make flexible payment options and rewards prominent in their messaging,” says Shepard.

2. Multi-channel integration

The digital landscape has evolved significantly, with TikTok penetration jumping from 53% to 89%, and 36% shopping via social platforms more than last year. “Brands who adopt a one-size-fits-all strategy are destined to fail – they need to meet their customers where they are and tailor content to target their audience,” says Shepard.

Brands should prioritise:

• WhatsApp Commerce: It boasts 100% penetration, with 26% of consumers already shopping via the platform.
  
• TikTok: TikTok strategies should focus on creating entertainment rather than promotional content and must take into account the platform’s preference for authentic engagement.
  
• YouTube: “YouTube integration is key so that brands can leverage the platform’s 99% penetration and 69% increased usage,” says Shepard.
  
• Email: Sophisticated email marketing should employ segmented campaigns with abandoned cart recovery sequences to maximise conversion opportunities.

3. Technical infrastructure preparation

“Peak season success isn’t just about marketing – it’s about infrastructure,” warns Shepard. “We see businesses lose thousands in revenue due to site crashes during high-traffic periods. Preparation is key. Speed testing, checkout optimisation, and mobile experience perfection are non-negotiable.”

4. Implementation timeline

TDMC recommends a structured approach beginning 6-8 weeks before peak season. “Strategy development, goal setting and team assignment need to be established and laid down well before the end of the third quarter so that your rollout can be built off this solid foundation,” says Shepard. He suggests this implementation timeline:

• October (4-6 weeks before): Creative asset development and approval (minimum 2-3 weeks lead time).
  
• November (2-4 weeks before): Technical setup, campaign pre-checking, and final preparations.
  
• Live management: Real-time optimisation with development teams on standby for effective troubleshooting and crisis management.

5. The Q5 Advantage

“Q5 represents the hidden profit period most brands ignore,” emphasises Shepard. “While competitors reduce spend, smart retailers can capture gift card redemptions, New Year’s resolutions, and clearance sales at 15% lower costs. It’s often the difference between a good peak season and an exceptional one.”

Strategy for this period should focus on self-gifting campaigns, resolution-based products, inventory clearance, and subscription renewals, with messaging centering around fresh starts and the economic optimism prevalent among younger demographics.

Looking ahead

E-commerce sales in 2025 are projected to surpass R130bn (nearly $7bn), according to an Online Retail 2025 report by World Wide Worx, a tech research company, in partnership with Mastercard, Peach Payments, and Ask Africa. The report highlighted that the sector is growing more than ten times faster than physical retail, with online sales jumping 35% in 2024, and expected to climb by a similar margin in 2025.

With this continued acceleration, TDMC predicts that brands mastering the extended peak season approach will gain significant competitive advantages. “Peak season 2025 isn’t just about individual sales events – it’s about building sustainable customer relationships that extend well into 2026,” concludes Shepard. “The brands that understand this connected journey, from October planning through to February education spending, will capture the lion’s share of revenue opportunity.”